AI and Geoeconomics

Keynes compare dans la « Théorie générale de l'emploi, de l'intérêt et de la monnaie » (1936), la pratique de l’investissement financier à un concours de beauté : « Ou encore, pour varier légèrement la métaphore, la technique du placement peut être comparée à ces concours organisés par les journaux où les participants ont à choisir les six plus jolis visages parmi une centaine de photographies, le prix étant attribué à celui dont les préférences s’approchent le plus de la sélection moyenne opérée par l’ensemble des concurrents. Chaque concurrent doit donc choisir non les visages qu’il juge lui-même les plus jolis, mais ceux qu’il estime les plus propres à obtenir le suffrage des autres concurrents, lesquels examinent tous le problème sous le même angle. Il ne s’agit pas pour chacun de choisir les visages qui, autant qu’il en peut juger, sont réellement les plus jolis ni même ceux que l’opinion moyenne considérera réellement comme tels. Au troisième degré où nous sommes ...

Back to Basics Series (2) Financial markets play a key role to provide investors with liquidity and hence enable them to move capital from low-productive savings to highly-productive investments: schooling, training, research, innovation. On the contrary, capital immobilization is a strong obstacle on investment in the real economy. Indeed nobody is willing to own a piece of a machine producing solar photovoltaic modules since it might not be easy to cash out part of this investment when needed. It is much easier to own a few shares of a listed company such as Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) to contribute to green investments while being able to get back your money at any time provided that you accept an exposure to market risk and specific risks related to the company. Hence liquidity is useful. Yet it is somehow at this very precise point that liquidity becomes dangerous since it is a first transgression of reality: on one hand the real asset remains highly illiquid and on the ot...

Professional investment may be liked to those newspaper competitions in which competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one's judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees. If the reader interjects that there must be surely large profits to be gained f...