AI and Geoeconomics

Donald Tusk @eucopresident  China – National Party Congress (5 March 2016) China will let its fiscal deficit grow by 560 billion yuan to 3% of GDP in 2016 # NPC http:// ow.ly/Z7ZCa   OIL - GCC Equity Market (6 March 2016) GCC Stocks Enter Bull: lots of expectation has been built into the potential meeting at the end of the month http://ow.ly/Z803A #OPEC EU – Turkey Summit (7 March 2016) The political stakes for the German chancellor are rising by the week: human, political and geopolitical challenges @FT EU-Turkey summit: high-stakes and unpleasant choices, says Gideon Rachman http://on.ft.com/1U46Kt5   ECB – Mario Draghi (10 March 2016) Week Ahead Economic Outlook: ECB policy easing anticipated - FT.com http://ow.ly/Z80kd

Peter Praet - ECB Latest comments “Recent developments in the world economy and in commodity markets have increased the downside risk of achieving the sustainable inflation path towards 2 percent,” Praet told reporters in Mannheim, Germany. “There should be no ambiguity on the willingness and ability of the Governing Council to act if needed.” Source: Bloomberg Biography Peter Praet joined the European Central Bank as Member of the Executive Board in 2011. He is responsible for Economics and Human Resources, Budget and Organisation. Before joining the ECB, Peter Praet was Executive Director of the National Bank of Belgium (2000-2011). Here he was responsible for International Cooperation, Financial Stability and Oversight of Financial Infrastructures and Payments Systems. Between 2002 and 2011, he was also a Member of the Management Committee of the Belgian Banking, Finance and Insurance Commission (CBFA), where he was responsible for Prudential Policy for banking and insur...

Donetsk January 22, 2015 - Reteurs - Alexander Ermochenko Europe #ECBQE It might not be enough, it might not be the optimal path but it is a pragmatic one. It is in any case a major shift from the conservative ECB. As Gavin Davies from FT put it “Mr Draghi eventually delivers”.   http://ow.ly/HTHKD In the US, QE was controversial and still is. Meanwhile, look at results. It worked. #QE #FED QE withdraws duration from the market and transfers it onto the government’s books. That is why asset prices rise when QE occurs: asset prices rise when duration is in demand, and they fall when duration is in supply. When central banks extract duration from the market, it has to be replaced with something else. Stocks are long-duration assets. Real estate is a long-duration asset. Collectibles and precious metals are long-duration assets. Patents and other forms of intellectual property rights are long-duration assets.   David Kotok http://ow.ly/HTIR2 ...

Au dessus de Vitebsk (1915-1920) - Chagall ·        Europe Central Bank: QE or not QE? o    This week the QE club has gained one new and serious supporter: Ewald Nowotny, governor of the Austrian Central Bank. Österreichs Notenbankchef Ewald Nowotny kann sich für den in Deutschland heftig umstrittenen Kauf von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB erwärmen. Für #Nowotny ist das Risiko einer ruinösen Abwärtsspirale aus fallenden Preisen und einer abschmierenden  #Konjunktur  sehr real  #Nowotny 08.12.2014, 13:52 von Reuters  - Notenbank-Chef Nowotny offen für Staatsanleihenkauf o    Yet on the short term, attentions and worries, might be focused on Greece. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras asked Greece's parliament to bring forward the presidential vote by more than two months to December 17. Failure to elect a new president by the end of the year would force snap elections that could bring the Sy...

Prices of the iShares Euro Government Bond Capped 5.5-10.5yr UCITS ETF (DE)  . Monetary policy Announcements of ECB and geopolitical risk continue to support a positive valuation of European Government Bonds. Risk Premium of the Ishares Euro Gov Bond ETF, measured as its VaR-95% (1 month horizon), is as low as 1,82% (Source: Raise Partner , BNP Paribas - Cortal Consors ). United States is pressing Europe to act one step further. From   Secretary Lew’s recent speech : “In short, status quo policies in Europe have not achieved our common G-20 objective of strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. The ECB has taken forceful steps to support the economy through accommodative monetary policy. But as recent economic performance suggests, this alone has not proven sufficient to restore healthy growth. Resolute action by national authorities and other European bodies is needed to reduce the risk that the region could fall into a...