Geopolitics and Finance this Week
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| Au dessus de Vitebsk (1915-1920) - Chagall |
· Europe
Central Bank: QE or not QE?
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This week the QE club has gained one new
and serious supporter: Ewald Nowotny, governor of the Austrian Central Bank.
Österreichs Notenbankchef Ewald Nowotny kann sich für den in Deutschland heftig umstrittenen Kauf von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB erwärmen.
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Für #Nowotny ist das Risiko einer ruinösen Abwärtsspirale aus fallenden Preisen und einer abschmierenden #Konjunktur sehr real #Nowotny
08.12.2014, 13:52 von Reuters - Notenbank-Chef Nowotny offen für Staatsanleihenkauf
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Yet on the short term, attentions
and worries, might be focused on Greece. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras asked Greece's parliament to bring forward the
presidential vote by more than two months to December 17. Failure to elect a
new president by the end of the year would force snap elections that could
bring the Syriza party to power in Athens. Investors are nervous that the
installation of an anti-austerity party would reignite the risk of Greek
defaulting on its debt, and possibly leaving the euro. Syriza is popular in the
polls and has said it would seek to renegotiate the terms of the country's
bailout should it gain power.
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Die andauernde Phase politischer Unsicherheit mit
latent drohenden Neuwahlen Anfang kommenden Jahres dürfte den Markt weiter in
Schach halten, glauben die Experten beim Piraeus Bank Equities Research.
“Eine kleine technische Reaktion könnte drin sein nach dem Absturz ... , aber
wir befürchten, dass das Bild bis zum ersten Wahlgang zum Staatspräsidenten
am 17. Dezember nicht klarer wird. Insgesamt dürfte die Stimmung schlecht bleiben.”
WSJ.DE Griechische Börse auf wackligem Erholungskurs - Freitag, 12. Dezember 2014, 13:05 Uhr |
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Ukraine-Russia
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Low oil prices and
international sanctions are hitting hard the Russian economy. This is starting
to look very serious.
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Long-term interest
rates at almost 13 percent, a plunging currency, and a lot of private-sector
institutions with large foreign-currency debts. You might imagine that large
foreign exchange reserves would allow the government to bail out those in
trouble, but the markets evidently don’t think so.
Paul Krugman - Petrothoughts - DECEMBER 14, 2014 8:21 AM |
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Vladimir Putin cannot afford to
stay too isolated from Europe and US without taking the risk to depend too much
on China as well as experience social and political difficulties. On the
mid-term diplomacy should find its way; yet, on the short term, before any
written agreement has been sealed, Vladimir Putin is likely to remain vocal and
tempted to maintain high military pressure on Ukraine – any potential incident
could increase market fears.
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Russland hat
Gegenmaßnahmen für den Fall angekündigt, dass die USA ihre Sanktionen wegen
der Ukrainekrise verschärfen sollten. "Wir kämen nicht umhin, darauf
eine Antwort zu finden", zitierte die Nachrichtenagentur Interfax am
Samstag den stellvertretenden Außenminister Sergej Rjabkow.
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Early
rates hikes in US are becoming more probable
Even Nobel
Prize, Paul Krugman, a strong opponent to too-early rates hikes, seems to be
ready to recognize his defeat.
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So my guess is that the Fed, given an improving US
job market, is strongly tempted to buy some peace by hiking rates a little,
just to quiet the critics for a few months.NYT Paul
Krugman Blog – Jean-Claude
Yellen - DECEMBER 10, 2014 2:34 PM
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