Republicans, Democrats and Trump negotiations: a BATNA Analysis
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| Alexey Bestuzhev (1693 – 1768), Grand Chancellor of Russia |
Breitbart
News-2 mai 2017
The
Republicans came to these budget negotiations without a BATNA (1), or
with a very bad one. They were not prepared to shut down the
government under almost any circumstances. A shutdown in President
Donald Trump’s first 100 days would have made him look like a weak
chief executive, and might have caused lasting political damage. A
shutdown would also have made the GOP-dominated Congress look
reckless and incompetent. It was never going to happen.
The
Democrats might also have suffered from a shutdown, but they have an
institutional advantage, in that the public is conditioned to expect
federal spending as the norm, and the mainstream media almost
always blame the Republicans for shutdowns. So their BATNA, while
bad, was better than President Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan’s
BATNA.
America – Trump's Small Family Business
America – Trump's Small Family Business
People's
Pundit Daily-12 mai 2017
Trump’s
existential BATNA: Trump is different from every other president with
the possible exception of George Washington in that he doesn’t view
his presidency as the sine qua non crowning achievement of his life’s
work. That distinction is reserved for the Trump Organization with
its self-proclaimed portfolio of “some of the leading properties on
the planet” and his immediate family.
Trump
views the presidency as an unlikely side project; one that he
undertook because he could and because he truly believed, as he still
does, that he can make one hell of a positive difference for America
and for Americans. But if it turns out that he couldn’t, that the
forces arraigned against him were too strong, he will not lose a
moment of sleep over it. “Trump Force One” is not a downgrade
after all and unlike Obama he will not have to smooch private jet
rides from anyone.
This
excellent global BATNA is what allowed Trump to fire Comey today and
meet with Lavrov tomorrow while allowing only the Russian
photographer into the meeting. It is the source of Trump’s “in
your face” behavior towards those (Democrats, the MSM) that he
perceives as unflippable. They’d better buckle in – it’s not
going to change.
(1) In negotiation theory, the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement or BATNA is the most advantageous alternative course of action a party can take if negotiations fail and an agreement cannot be reached. BATNA is the key focus and the driving force behind a successful negotiator. A party should generally not accept a worse resolution than its BATNA
Attractive alternatives are needed to develop a strong BATNA. In the best-selling book Getting to YES: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, the authors give 3 suggestions of how to accomplish this:- Inventing a list of actions one might take if no agreement is reached
- Converting some of the more promising ideas and transforming them into tangible and partial alternatives
- Selecting the alternative that sounds best
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