Le Coin Quant Finance

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Fluctuations économiques conjoncturelles
Maurice Allais – CNRS – 1984

A ce jour, et au moins pour une très large part, les fluctuations conjoncturelles de l’économie doivent être considérées comme inexpliquées. Aucune théorie endogène n’est parvenue en effet à présenter un ensemble de relations causales dont le jeu simultané puisse susciter l’apparition de périodicités de l’ordre de 6, 9 ou 18 ans dont l’existence paraît aujourd’hui incontestable, ou de régularités locales dont la morphologie rappelle d’une manière si frappante celle des fonctions presque périodiques.

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