AI and Geoeconomics

"There's no way to solve a financial crisis without creating some moral hazard, without protecting investors and institutions from some of the consequences of excessive risk taking. They were, in Ted Truman's phrase, collateral beneficiaries of an effective emergency program. It was impossible to design an effective rescue for the intended beneficiaries -- the people who lived and worked in those countries -- without some collateral beneficiaries" [p. 67] Extract from Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises by Timothy F. Geithner, Crown/Random House, 2014.

Au dessus de Vitebsk (1915-1920) - Chagall ·        Europe Central Bank: QE or not QE? o    This week the QE club has gained one new and serious supporter: Ewald Nowotny, governor of the Austrian Central Bank. Österreichs Notenbankchef Ewald Nowotny kann sich für den in Deutschland heftig umstrittenen Kauf von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB erwärmen. Für #Nowotny ist das Risiko einer ruinösen Abwärtsspirale aus fallenden Preisen und einer abschmierenden  #Konjunktur  sehr real  #Nowotny 08.12.2014, 13:52 von Reuters  - Notenbank-Chef Nowotny offen für Staatsanleihenkauf o    Yet on the short term, attentions and worries, might be focused on Greece. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras asked Greece's parliament to bring forward the presidential vote by more than two months to December 17. Failure to elect a new president by the end of the year would force snap elections that could bring the Sy...

Prices of the iShares Euro Government Bond Capped 5.5-10.5yr UCITS ETF (DE)  . Monetary policy Announcements of ECB and geopolitical risk continue to support a positive valuation of European Government Bonds. Risk Premium of the Ishares Euro Gov Bond ETF, measured as its VaR-95% (1 month horizon), is as low as 1,82% (Source: Raise Partner , BNP Paribas - Cortal Consors ). United States is pressing Europe to act one step further. From   Secretary Lew’s recent speech : “In short, status quo policies in Europe have not achieved our common G-20 objective of strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. The ECB has taken forceful steps to support the economy through accommodative monetary policy. But as recent economic performance suggests, this alone has not proven sufficient to restore healthy growth. Resolute action by national authorities and other European bodies is needed to reduce the risk that the region could fall into a...

Financial Stability Oversight Council - http://www.treasury.gov/fsoc (Reuters) - A U.S. government watchdog on Wednesday slammed a post-crisis regulatory council created to spot emerging financial market risks, saying the group operates with little transparency and does not have all the  tools  to do its job. In testimony to Congress, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) faulted the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) for failing to enact certain reforms that were recommended in a report issued two years ago. "FSOC still lacks a comprehensive, systematic approach to identify emerging threats to financial stability," said GAO staffer A. Nicole Clowers, in testimony before a U.S. House of Representatives financial services panel. "FSOC has taken steps to improve its communication with the public, but could do more to improve transparency and accountability," Clowers said, noting that the council still does not keep detailed transcripts of i...

Morceaux choisis et commentaires à partir de : Hubert Védrine, Rapport sur la France et la Mondialisation , Paris, Fayard, 2007. Sept ans après la publication de ce rapport commandé par le Président Sarkozy, les situations en Russie, au Mali, en Libye, en Irak, en Syrie...   confèrent aux mots du diplomate une nouvelle dimension: une forme d'urgence à la fois réaliste, humble et ambitieuse. Autant, pour retrouver confiance en elle dans la mondialisation, la France a besoin d'un sursaut psychologique, d'une révolution mentale et d'un rejet du défaitisme, appuyée sur des initiatives politiques fortes et des politiques innovantes, autant, en politique étrangère et en défense, la France, ne doit surtout pas baisser les bras. Mais que doit-elle changer? Hubert Védrine propose de "changer de ton", se défaire d'un peu de notre arrogance vis à vis de nos partenaires étrangers sans pour autant "raser les murs". Nous devons notamment ...